Things are heating up going into the last three important tournaments of the year, Shanghai, Paris and the ATP finals. Novak Djokovic will do everything in his power to defend a ton of points out of these three events due to him winning Shanghai and reaching the finals of both Paris and ATP.

Novak’s been solid at these tournaments historically though and knowing that the number one ranking is on the line, I imagine he’s also going to be a lot more motivated. Nadal will be motivated as well. Nothing sweeter than to finish the year number one again. Finishing number one for the fifth time would tie him with Federer and Djokovic, both having accomplished that feat five times.

That being said, although eyes will be on Nadal and Djokovic, Medvedev has continued his incredible form, and just picked up his third title of the season in St. Petersburg, playing his fifth straight final. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t go deep in Shanghai. I’d love to see a rematch of Nadal and Medvedev somewhere in that tournament, because somewhere in the middle of that US Open final you got the sense that Medvedev learned how to play Nadal. In terms of Djokovic, he’s already beat him twice this year, both in Monte Carlo and in Cincinnati.

In terms of outside favorites not named Nadal, Djokovic, Federer or Medvedev, I’d keep an eye on Gael Monfils. When he’s been healthy this year, the guy’s been fantastic. He can make a deep run and he’s super motivated given that he stands at number 10 in the Race to London, and would love a shot at the ATP finals, where only the top 8 qualify. Also, don’t discount Nishikori, he’s been solid this year, but has not had a great result. Picking up a Masters 1,000 will be in his line of sight.

Finally, there’s Zverev, our past ATP Finals Champion from last year. We expected great things from him, and we all thought he’d be more consistent and pick up more big trophies. Unfortunately, he’s had a terrible season by his standards. In each of the last two years, while hasn’t picked up a Grand Slam he’s picked up a few Masters 1000 titles in addition to the ATP Finals. He stands at number 11 in the Race to London, and won’t want to miss out on defending his ATP Finals trophy.