Federer will be in the Wimbledon final. He’s shown us in the past two weeks that he’s the man to beat. As usual, Federer played two grass court tune ups on his way to Wimbledon. The results were very familiar. In Stuttgart he beat a resurgent Milos Raonic in the final. At Halle, he lost to Borna Coric in the final. That’s two finals, with one championship at two tough tune ups. I’d argue that nobody else had as solid a showing in the grass court tune ups. Which leads me to the following prediction: Roger Federer makes it to the Wimbledon Final.

Notice that I said he’ll make it to the final. I didn’t say he’d win the tournament outright. My reasoning is that as good as Federer is on grass, he’s not as good as Nadal is on clay. Two months ago, I declared, let’s skip the clay court season and give Nadal the French Open. I was proven correct. After seeing Nadal breeze through Monte Carlo, that was an easy prediction.

With Roger Federer it’s not so easy. He’s been to numerous Wimbledon finals in the last five years, only to fall short. That hasn’t been the case for Nadal. He’s never met a French Open final he hasn’t won. Let’s look at Federer’s record at Wimbledon in the last five years since his win in 2012:

• 2013: third round
• 2014: Final
• 2015: Final
• 2016: Semifinal
• 2017: Won

Last year Federer solidified his place in history by winning the Australian and Wimbledon, after a five-year Grand Slam drought. He backed it up this year by winning the Australian again. However, can we really expect 36-year-old Roger Federer to win Wimbledon again this year? I refuse to hand him the trophy with as much confidence as I handed Nadal the French Open trophy two months ago. Part of my reasoning is that there’s some pretty good grass court players out there that can take him down. My list is as follows; Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic, and Nick Kyrgios

These three guys serve big, play attacking tennis, move well around the court, and can go the distance. To beat any of those three names, Federer will need to go the distance every single set. Their serves are unbreakable in grass. So, in sum, I expect Federer in the final, but any of the three big fellas can take him down on that final Sunday.