The semifinals are set. After a week of top-level matches during the round robin, the cream of the crop has risen to the top. Let’s take a look at our semifinal matches.

Rafa Nadal vs. Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev has been on fire in the last month, claiming the Paris Masters title along the way. At the ATP Finals round robin, he notched quality wins against Zverev and Djokovic. His reward: Rafa Nadal in a blockbuster semifinal. The last time these two played, they delivered a classic three set thriller at the 2019 ATP Finals, which included two tie breaks. Like the 2019 US Open Final, Nadal prevailed in that 2019 ATP Tour Finals round robin match.

This year it may be a little different. Even though Nadal is coming off his 13th French Open win, and a semifinal appearance at the Paris Masters, it’s looking a little tougher for Nadal on hard courts as of late. Don’t count him out though. If Medvedev has a couple of down games, Nadal will take advantage. I just don’t see Medvedev having a couple of down games. In the round robin, he made Djokovic look ordinary. He cruised past Zverev. He’s now the favorite to win the tournament, and he will get past Nadal in this hard-court rematch.

Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem

Djokovic didn’t look good against Medvedev and struggled in his win against Zverev. His only win was against Schwartzman in straight sets. However, this is Djokovic, and you should never count out Djokovic. He will be pitted against the 2020 US Open Champion, Dominic Thiem, who looked impressive against Nadal in the round robin. Thiem won that match in two tie breaks. He also had an impressive win against Tsitsipas before succumbing to Rublev in the last match. On paper, it’s Thiem who has looked the better of the two.

However, like I said, don’t count out Djokovic, he’s won this tournament five times and he holds the 7-4 edge on this rivalry. Regardless of how Djokovic has looked in the round robin matches, he is still the clear favorite in this match, and alongside Medvedev, the clear favorite to win the tournament.

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