Not to be sidelined for too long, Naomi Osaka is making her comeback at the 2024 Australian Open.

The four-time Grand Slam winner, and recent mom, will be looking to dethrone the current status quo at the top of the women’s game. Sabalenka, Rybakina and Swiatek have been doing a lot of damage on the tour in Osaka’s absence. Here’s three possible scenarios that may face Osaka.

1. She makes a lackluster return on tour and is not able to reach heights previously reached. She plays for one or two more years and swiftly retires. 
2. She comes back with a bang, making the Australian Open finals, and continues to have decent results throughout 2024, and becomes a fixture in the top 20 for the next five to six years. Think Azarenka. 
3. She starts slow, building results throughout 2024 and then makes her big move on tour in 2025, capturing a few slams on her way back to number one in the world.
4. She loses in the first round of most tournaments throughout 2024 and swiftly retires again. 

I think the most likely scenario may be #2. It is very hard to come back after a long layoff and expect the same level of success as she previously had. Also, don’t forget that her game was not winning her any grand slams when she disappeared from the scene at the end of 2022. She was pretty much on a free fall after the Australian win in 2021. 

Don’t get me wrong, she has the game to be a top player again. However, the women’s game is so deep right now that it will take more than just talent on her behalf to go back to her winning ways. The first thing she will need is a fantastic coach. The second thing she’ll need is a 100% commitment to tennis. If she can get those two things right, the results will come.

As a fan I would love than to see Naomi back smoking groundstrokes past quality opponents. She’s still very young at 25 years old. She can add to the already hall of fame career she has built up to know. 

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