There are only eight spots available at the ATP Finals and about 14 players still in the running to qualify.

The top six players can rest easy knowing that it would take a monumental collapse for them not to qualify. Those players are as follows: Alcaraz, Nadal, Ruud, Tsitsipas, Medvedev, and Rublev. That means that only two spots are really up for grabs. Let’s take a look at the points the top 20 hold as of today.

Carlos Alcaraz: 6460
Rafael Nadal: 5810
Casper Ruud: 4930
Stefanos Tsitsipas: 4885
Daniil Medvedev: 3555
Andrey Rublev: 3440
Felix Auger-Aliassime: 3065
Taylor Fritz: 2885
Hubert Hurkacz: 2725
Novak Djokovic: 2720
Alexander Zverev: 2700
Cameron Norrie: 2365
Pablo Carreno Busta: 2315
Jannik Sinner: 2310
Matteo Berrettini: 2225
Marin Cilic: 2095
Karen Khachanov: 1900
Nick Kyrgios: 1870
Frances Tiafoe: 1865
Dennis Shapovalov: 1835

Felix Auger-Aliassime helped his cause by winning Gijon this week, thereby collecting a nice 250 points to move ahead of Fritz into the seventh position. This coming week we have another set of 250 series tournaments, and we will see some big names playing. However, the three tournaments to watch will be Basel and Vienna, starting on the 24th of October, and then the Paris Masters Starting on October 31st. Basel and Vienna have 500 points each up for grabs while Paris has 1000. There are a few players I could see dislodging both Fritz and Auger-Aliassime from the 7th and 8th position.

Novak Djokovic has the best chance to clinch an ATP Finals position. He’s playing well, having picked up 500 points in Astana, beating Medvedev and Tsitsipas along the way. Djokovic would very likely be ranked in the top five if not for the fact that Wimbledon did not award points this year. Djokovic will be hungry for all the ATP points at his disposal in the coming weeks.

The other player that has had an amazing season but was also unfortunate not to get any points during Wimbledon was Nick Kyrgios. Kyrgios still has an outside chance to qualify for the ATP Finals by winning Basel and Paris. Given how tough the field is, this seems unlikely.

Hubert Hurkacz is right behind Taylor Fritz with 2725 points. The Pole can go deep in these indoor tournaments. Next to Djokovic, he’s the most likely to qualify.

The most likely scenario is that Djokovic qualifies and Auger-Aliassime holds on to the number seven spot. Either way, it will be an exciting last few weeks of the season!

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