The race to the NITTO ATP Finals is coming down to the wire. With 1,500 points left, there’s still three of the eight spots theoretically up for grabs.

Currently, the top men are fighting it out in both Vienna and Basel at 500 level tournaments before they head over to Paris for a 1,000-point haul. Paris will be their last chance to accumulate enough points to make the NITTO ATP Finals. As of 10.27, the race looks as follows:

1. Novak Djokovic – 8,945

2. Carlos Alcaraz – 8445

3. Daniil Medvedev – 7,025

4. Jannik Sinner – 4,990

5. Andrey Rublev – 4,410

6. Stefanos Tsitsipas – 3,875

7. Alexander Zverev – 3,460

8. Holger Rune – 3,190

9. Taylor Fritz – 3,055

10. Hubert Hurkacz – 2,945

11. Casper Ruud – 2,815

12. Tommy Paul – 2,620

13. Alex de Minaur – 2,560

14. Karen Khachanov – 2,295

15. Ben Shelton – 2,275

16. Frances Tiafoe – 2,220

Theoretically, any of the players between 6 and 16 have a chance of qualifying. The battle though, is mostly within the 6-11 spots where a couple of hundred points separates these players. Understanding the pressure, most of the top players are not only playing either Vienna or Basel but playing extremely well, making this race to the ATP Finals as tight as it has been in years. Alexander Zverev and Holder Rune will need to continue accumulating points in Paris if they want to fend off the likes of Fritz, Hurkacz, and Ruud. Meanwhile, those ranked below Ruud will need to have a fantastic showing in Paris and hope that Zverev and Rune don’t go far.

Between Zverev and Rune, I’m going to bet on Rune holding on to his spot. He’s already in the semis of Basel, and has a wildcard up his sleeve. That wildcard is Boris Becker, his new coach. Fresh out of jail, Boris is now coaching Rune and it has immediately started making an impact on the young Dane. As for Zverev, he lost to Rublev in the quarters of Vienna and will need a strong showing in Paris.

Outside looking in, Hurcacz seems like the biggest threat, reaching the semis in Basel and looking strong. Hurcacz is no stranger to Masters 1000 titles either, performing with consistency at those events. His big serve and massive groundstrokes also tell me his body is not beat down after a long season. He doesn’t have to do much running with those big strokes!

I’d love to see Fritz put together a run in Paris and catch Zverev or Rune, but at this point, it seems unlikely. He hasn’t been playing well and looks like his season is coming to an end. Either way, keep your eyes on Basel, Vienna, and Paris in the next few days!

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